Based on an Inventors Clinic I attended as part of IANE I was confronted with an issue that happens quite often, so I will try and address the issues in general terms.

Problem

So you have found a good problem that you would like to fix.  The problem exists in several different markets and each market would like a different design and technology solution.  So what market, design and technology do you pursue?

Answer

The answer is to follow the market!  Pick the best market, and the rest of the product development concerns will be answered by that market.  How do you pick the right market?  Well this is now an opportunity assessment and you could use Porters 5 forces and a number of different methods, I will talk about one that I use often.

So you have three possible markets, lets say elderly, kids and daycare (markets somewhat taken from 2Hot). Through internet research find out how many of them exist (#).  The value of the market can be established several different ways ($) like: cost of bad occurrences without the product like hospital visit costs or law suits, how much money do people spend in this segment like funds spent to remodel / update bathroom, or you could just use a 1-10 scale of the ability to pay.  Market penetration (%) is tricky to do.  A survey with a picture / demonstration of the prototype works, but doesn’t show if they would actually put money down to buy it.  For penetration you could use a proxy of another new product that entered a similar market area and say you will get the same market penetration.  Customer Need is a very important aspect.  This would be put in a weighted scale of 1-10 based on survey results, interview feedback and pre-production purchases.  Customer need is the amount that the market absolutely needs your device (also called market pain).  Finally competition, what is out there that is working now?  Does it fix the problem adequately (even if not perfectly)?  The competition scale is inverse, so if there is none, put 10, lots use 1.

Other Variables to think about

Cost of switching, target market disposable income, insurance complications etc.  The list could go on and on, but you need enough info to make an educated guess/

Bottom Line

Multiply the whole chart through and find out which one is higher.  That is your market and dive into it some more because there will be other variables to understand.  You might not pick the right market at the beginning even with this analysis, but you will have a sense of direction and understand what the next best option is.

Design & Technology

I always believed that you ask you market what design / technology will work best.  Don’t ask do you prefer Infrared or Capacitive, but instead describe the function / embodiment of the different options.  Design is easier, come up with several different styles and show pictures to people, gather responses and analyze results.

Now you know how to evaluate which market, what design and which technology.